The situation in Syrian is getting more complicated. It has indeed become thornier with the glaring and foolhardy interferences of powerful states aiding the oppositions against the Syrian government. Riad Kahwaji has an interesting observation to share:
Syria: Pros and Cons of Intervention
By Riad Kahwaji
CEO - INEGMA
Friday,
08 June 2012 00:00
The West
ignored calls by the Arab states for arming the rebels and creating a safe-zone
in northern Syria. (Reuters)
Nearly
fourteen months have passed and over 11,000 people dead and thousands wounded
and missing and yet the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has not taken
any tangible steps to stop the brutal daily slaughter by the Syrian regime
against its own people who rose up against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and
his military junta. The UNSC managed to pass two resolutions that called for
the implementation of a proposed peace plan by UN-Arab League emissary Kofi
Annan, and the deployment of 300 international observers to monitor a
cease-fire agreed on by the Syrian regime and the opposition forces. However,
the Syrian regime is yet to adhere to the cease-fire and the terms of Annan's
peace plan. Syrian regular troops are still deployed in the cities and villages
and bombarding rebel strongholds and opening fire on unarmed demonstrators
unabated by the presence of international observers. Most analysts and
observers do not expect the Syrian regime to respect the cease-fire or
implement Annan's plan, especially with the continued open support it has been
receiving from Russia and its strategic ally, Iran.
The
United States and its Western allies have made it clear that they do not intend
to intervene militarily to stop the killing in Syria, at least not without a
UNSC resolution, which is hard to get due to an anticipated Russian veto. The
West also ignored calls by the Arab states, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, for
arming the rebels and creating a safe-zone in northern Syria to allow the
opposition forces to organize their ranks in their quest to depose the regime.
Many observers and officials have called for repeating the Yugoslavia
intervention scenario in Syria.
The main
reasons for the West's reservations as explained in speeches, press interviews
and statements by regional diplomats, could be summed up as follows:
- The West fears that military operations in highly populated areas in Syria could cause heavy collateral damage that could cause a huge public outcry in the Arab world against the West.
- Arming the Syrian rebels could lead to chaos and spread of armed militias in the country, as was the case in Libya after the collapse of the regime. Israel and its lobby in the West have been pressing hard to prevent the arming of Syrian opposition to avoid the spread of Islamist militias on its borders, especially in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
- The collapse of the Syrian regime could open the way to the Muslim Brotherhood to take over power in Damascus, which could place Israel in a sensitive position as it is still trying to cope with the change on its southern borders where the Muslim Brotherhood have taken control of the political process in Egypt.
- Supporting the rebels militarily could push the situation in Syrian into a civil war between the minority Alawaite Muslim sect that controls the regime and the Sunni Muslim majority that backs the uprising.
- The Syrian regime could use its ballistic missiles or some of its chemical weapons against NATO or Arab countries. There is also a concern that non-conventional weapons could fall in the hands of terrorist groups.
Backing
from Arab Masses
|
An international
military intervention will speed up the inevitable collapse of the regime and
will encourage hesitant Syrian generals and officials to defect.
|
Taking
the above reasons one at a time shows that the West will likely fall victim to
its own over-cautious and slow approach to the Syrian crisis. The worry of
negative reaction to a possible collateral damage incident shows that the West
has thus far failed to do an adequate post-conflict assessment of the NATO
operations in Libya where warplanes from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates
participated in the air raids on Libyan regime forces. The Arab media was
overwhelmingly behind the NATO campaign, and major media outlets like the
Doha-based al-Jazeera and Dubai-based and Saudi-owned al-Arabiya news channels
clearly played down incidents of collateral damage in Libya and justified NATO's
use of force throughout the campaign. Lesson learned here is that when Arab
forces are involved in a military operation demanded by Arab masses and
governments, public opinion will stand behind the military campaign all the way
despite some inevitable incidents of collateral damage.
Defected
Syrian troops make up the majority of the armed Syrian rebels, and intensive
efforts have been underway for some time by Syrian opposition leaders and Arab
as well as Western officials to organize the ranks of the Syrian opposition
fighters. Once equipped with adequate means of communication and linked up in
proper command and control centers it would be easy to identify the fighters
and their areas of deployment. This should help keep the rebels organized in a
clear structure of command that would keep them all under control and prevent
their feared disintegration into militias in the post-regime era. However,
leaving the rebels to fend for themselves and seek their own arms and means of
fighting the regime would eventually lead to the creation of self-sustaining
local militias throughout Syria, including the Golan Heights. This scenario
would be the perfect one for al-Qaeda to penetrate the Syrian opposition ranks
and take control of some areas on the ground.
The continued
delay in the intervention in Syria has only prolonged the suffering of the
Syrian people and raised the level of public frustration amongst the masses
that have become less dependent on the international community and more hopeful
of a divine intervention to save them. Thus, Syrians are being driven into
extremism, which will only widen the popular base of the Muslim Brotherhood and
Salafist movements in the country. Secular and liberal Syrian activists who
support the revolution, and have been playing a leading role in running it are
quickly losing their popular base as a result of the international community's
slackness. The Muslim Brotherhood popular base in Syria was controlled due to
clampdown by the regime for many years. But now it is hard to tell how the
situation has become with the flow of events in the country. So once again the
sloppy and slow approach by the international community could lead to
empowering the Islamic parties in Syria.
Syria-West
Messages
|
The West has been
very reluctant to give any tangible support to the Syrian people who have
been left alone to face the ferocity of the regime's heavily armed forces.
|
As for
the fear of a civil war in Syria, the level of atrocities by the regime there
and its refusal to halt the military campaign will eventually push the country
into civil war. Armed gangs and thugs set loose by the regime have been
massacring families in various cities and towns, which is fueling sectarian
killings. This is a method employed by the regime to blackmail the
international community and Arab countries into staying out of its affairs. But
it is a policy with a double-edged sword because it will lead to civil war. An
international military intervention will speed up the inevitable collapse of
the regime and will encourage hesitant Syrian generals and officials to defect,
permitting a quick end to the Assad rule.
The
Syrian regime realizes very well that using ballistic missiles or chemical
weapons against NATO, Israel or Arab countries will mean its certain death.
Right now the regime is betting on exhausting the international community and
stripping it out of options to keep it from intervening militarily with the
help of Russia and force the West into allowing it to stay in power as part of
a new understanding with the opposition. The worst case scenario for the regime
would be for it to escape to exile. Using such weapons against the West and its
allies will mean suicide to a regime that sets survival as its top priority.
Also, delay of an international intervention would open the way for extremist
groups to raid chemical weapons depots after the collapse of the regime.
Even if
the West intends to intervene at a certain point but is waiting for the right
moment, its communication and information strategy has thus far been
counter-productive and destructive to say the least. The NATO Secretary General
has repeatedly come up to assure the Syrian regime that there will not be any
intervention, which is seen by Syrians and Arabs as a Western message of
assurance to Assad to continue with his oppression. Statements by US generals
and officials accusing the Syrian rebels of being infested with al-Qaeda is
also another message read by the Syrian rebels as a Western show of support for
the regime's oppression. Washington and NATO should do an immediate full
revision of their communication and information strategy towards Syria — if
there is a strategy to start with. The devastating impact the fall of the
Syrian regime would have on Iran has already been established by many officials
and analysts; it is seen with the level of direct military, economic and
political support Iran has been given to the Syrian regime. Yet, the West has
been very reluctant to give any tangible support to the Syrian people who have
been left alone to face the ferocity of the regime's heavily armed forces.
The will
of the Syrian rebels have been too strong to be broken by the regime's forces,
and hence if the situation is left as is the Syrian crisis will slide into a
prolonged civil war that will lead to the slow death of the regime and the
birth of a destroyed country led by radical Islamic parties with strong
resentment to the international community for abandoning it to its own fate.
Then, Israel will have a real cause of concern. The UNSC should regard the
failure by the regime to implement the Annan peace plan as a violation of its
resolution and should call for the activation of chapter seven to allow for a
military intervention to protect the Syrian people. If Russia vetoes the
resolution, then a military coalition including Arab and NATO countries should
intervene as was the case in Yugoslavia to bring about a swift and controlled
end to the state of chaos Syria is about to plunge in as a result of the
regime's unabated brutality.
This
story originally appeared on INEGMA's website and is hereby republished with
permission.
Riad Kahwaji is the
founder and Chief Executive Office of the Institute for Near East and Gulf
Military Analysis (INEGMA). Kahwaji worked as the Middle East Bureau Chief for
Defense News, a leading international defense publication based in Virginia,
USA from 2001 to 2008. He also worked for Jane´s Defense Weekly as Middle East
Correspondent from 1999 to 2001.
